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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 20 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Sep 2024	160	006
21 Sep 2024	158	012
22 Sep 2024	158	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours remained at low levels with background C-class flaring. There are six numbered regions on the visible solar disc with NOAA AR 3828 (beta-gamma- delta) growing to become the largest and most complex region. Most of the flaring activity was produced by NOAA AR 3824 (beta-gamma) from the west limb, NOAA AR 3825 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3829 (beta). The solar flaring activity is likely to be predominantly at low levels over the coming days with 40% chances of M-class flares and 5% chances for isolated X-class flaring.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) remained slightly perturbed. The interplanetary magnetic field reached 9.1 nT with Bz as low as - 8.7 nT. The solar wind velocity varied in the range of 340 km/s to 499 km/s. The B field phi angle was in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be slightly perturbed in the upcoming days under the possible influence of mild high speed stream.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions with isolated active periods are expected over the next days.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 has exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours and is expected to exceed the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to be at the border of nominal to moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 126, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	183
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	110 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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