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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 24 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Sep 2024	167	011
25 Sep 2024	169	032
26 Sep 2024	171	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was moderate. There are eight numbered regions on the visible solar disc with NOAA ARs 3828 (beta), and 3836 (beta-gamma) and 3835 (beta) being the most active in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3836, that just rotated into view over the east limb, produced the strongest flare of the day, an M1.3 flare with peak at 14:56 UTC on 23 September. The solar flaring activity is likely to remain at moderate levels over the coming days, with more M-class flares likely.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A small equatorial positive polarity coronal hole crossed the central meridian on 21 September. A mild high speed stream may arrive at Earth in the next 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Solar wind conditions at Earth have been slightly disturbed with the interplanetary magnetic field reaching 13 nT and Bz down to -10 nT. The solar wind speed remained below 490 km/s. This is probably due to the arrival of a CME from 19 September. In the next 24 hours, more disturbed solar wind conditions are expected, with the possible arrival of a mild high speed stream and an ICME (from the CME on 22 September).

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel from 1 to 4). Minor to moderate storm conditions could occur in the next 24 hours due to ICME and HSS arrivals.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 has been below the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 136, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	167
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	131 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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