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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Sep 2024	174	022
27 Sep 2024	172	011
28 Sep 2024	170	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with an M1.4 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 233 (NOAA Active Region 3828) peaking at 23:12 UTC on 25 September. A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Most of the activity in the last 24 hours came from: SIDC Sunspot Group 233 (NOAA Active Region 3828) currently located at S11W48 has a Alpha magnetic configuration and was stable over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 265 (NOAA Active Region 3833) currently located at N22W67 has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 244 (NOAA Active Region 3836) currently located at S10E45 has a Beta- Gamma magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A small negative polarity coronal hole is crossing central meridian.

Solární bouře

Solar wind conditions at Earth show a fading high speed stream, with speeds decreasing from 600 km/s to 420 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field down to 5 nT. A glancing blow from the 22 September CME could still be observed today and cause more disturbed conditions.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels locally (K_Bel up to 4) and minor storm levels globally (Kp up to 5). Up to minor storm conditions could occur in the next 24 hours due to ICME arrival.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels, and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 went slightly above the 1000 pfu threshold on 25 September, while it remained below it in GOES 18. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels, it may go up to moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 147, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	177
10cm solar flux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	031
Estimated international sunspot number	139 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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