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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Oct 25 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Oct 2024	204	008
26 Oct 2024	210	037
27 Oct 2024	214	024

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with several C-class flares and one M-class flare recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 2389), peaking at 07:33 UTC on October 25, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Regions 3873; beta). There are currently ten numbered active regions on the visible disk, with SIDC Sunspot Group 273(NOAA Active Region 3869; beta-gamma) and SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3872; beta-gamma) being the most complex. SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA Active Region 3869; beta-gamma) was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 294 (NOAA Active Region 3870) is approaching the west limb and remained quiet. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 244 (NOAA Active Region 3866; beta). Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A small negative polarity, low-latitude coronal hole has been crossing the central meridian since October 24

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were reflecting slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed decreased from values around 350 km/s to 310 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was weak, below 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the 24 hours, with a chance of a weak enhancement on October 26-27 due to the arrival of a high- speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole that began crossing the central meridian on October 22, along with the possible arrival of an ICME.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet globally NOAA Kp: 1 to 2) and quiet to unsettled locally over Belgium (K-BEL: 2 to 3). Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected on October 25. Unsettled conditions, with possible isolated active and minor storm periods, are expected on October 26-27 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream and the possible arrival of an ICME.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced in the past 24 hours due to the fast halo coronal mass ejection (CME), that was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph data starting at around 03:48 UTC on October 24, but remained below the radiation storm levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be slightly enhanced with small chances of exceeding the minor storm levels in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 173, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	197
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	138 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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