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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Oct 27 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Oct 2024	237	017
28 Oct 2024	239	043
29 Oct 2024	241	024

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with several C-class flares and one M-class flare recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M1.6 flare (SIDC Flare 2405), peaking at 14:16 UTC on October 26 from beyond the north-east limb (N16E88) from a region that is expected to rotate onto the disk in the coming days. There are currently twelve numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 249 (NOAA Active Region 3872; beta-gamma-delta) is the most complex region on the disk, but it has only produced C-class flaring. SIDC Sunspot Group 294 (NOAA Active Region 3870) is approaching the west limb and remained quiet. Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 273 (NOAA Active Region 3869; beta-gamma) and SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Region 3873; beta-gamma). Other regions on the disk have simple configurations of their photospheric magnetic fields (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, Earth came under the influence of an Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME). A shock was detected in the solar wind data around 15:35 UTC on October 26, with the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) jumping from 14 nT to 22 nT and the solar wind speed rising from 370 km/s to 440 km/s. This shock is likely associated with a halo coronal mass ejection observed early on October 24. Following the ICME’s arrival, the IMF reached values up to 26 nT, and the southward component of the IMF fluctuated between -18 nT and 19 nT. The IMF phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly elevated over the next day due to the ICME passage, possibly mixed with high-speed stream (HSS) influence, with further enhancement possible on October 28 due to the potential arrival of another ICME from October 26 and HSS from the negative polarity coronal hole.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached active levels both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 4, K-BEL: 4) between 18:00 and 00:00 UTC on October 26 due to the ICME arrival. Unsettled conditions, with possible isolated active periods, are expected for the remainder of October 27. Active conditions, with possible isolated minor to major storm periods, are possible on October 28 due to the expected arrival of another ICME and possible HSS arrival.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, exceeded the 10 pfu threshold at 19:10 UTC on October 26 and 100 pfu threshold today, October 27, at 09:15 UTC. The proton flux had been gradually increasing since 04:15 UTC on October 24. Two halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs), first detected by LASCO C2 at 03:48 UTC on October 24 and 06:48 UTC on October 26, along with strong flaring activity from NOAA AR 3869 and 3873, are likely associated with this particle event. The proton flux is currently above the threshold level and is expected to continue increasing over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 254, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	238
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	228 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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