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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Nov 12 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Nov 2024	200	010
13 Nov 2024	200	013
14 Nov 2024	200	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours despite the presence of several complex sunspot regions, with several C-class flares identified. A total of eight numbered sunspot groups were observed on the disk during this period. The largest flare was a C4.4 flare (SIDC Flare 2583), peaking on November 11 at 14:28 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Regions 3859, 3889). SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889), currently located at S10E11, is the most active region and has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for M-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A significant number of large filaments are currently facing Earth. So far, the filaments remain stable, and no Earth- directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

The recurrent SIDC Coronal Hole 68, which first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-07 (and initially on 2024-09-10), continues to transition across the central meridian. A new, small SIDC Coronal Hole 78 (an equatorial coronal hole with positive polarity) has emerged and is currently located around 27 degrees East and 10 degrees North.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters were close to a nominal solar wind regime, with a solar wind speed varying between 340 km/s and 430 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was below 7 nT, and its southward component, Bz, fluctuated between -4.6 nT and -5.6 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to become more enhanced over the next 24 hours due to the combined arrival of the high-speed stream associated with the positive-polarity, mid-latitude northern coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 68) and the high-speed stream from the small equatorial SIDC Coronal Hole 76, which first reached the central meridian on 2024-11-05.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet (NOAA Kp 1-2), with a short period of active conditions observed locally (NOAA Kp 1-2, K BEL 4). Geomagnetic storm activity is expected to increase over the next 24 hours due to the combined arrival of high-speed streams from the mid-latitude northern coronal hole and the equatorial coronal hole.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to stay below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. However, due to the enhanced solar and flaring activity, a slight chance of an increase cannot be excluded.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 121, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	182
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	151 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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