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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Dec 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Dec 2024	174	026
20 Dec 2024	176	013
21 Dec 2024	178	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity has been moderate, with 1 M-class flare detected. SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA Active Region 3927) has rocated into view from the east limb and is producing most of the flaring activity. Nevertheless, the largest flare of the last 24 hours came from SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA Active Region 3924, Beta-Gamma magnetic configration), currently close to the west limb. This was an M1.7 flare peaking at 10:38 UTC. More M-class flares are likely in the next 24 hours.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

Solární bouře

The solar wind at Earth is returning to slow wind conditions, with speeds descending and currently around 450 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT (DSCOVR). A possible ICME arrival today (from the CME of 15 December), may create more disturbed conditions.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have reached active levels globally (Kp up to 4), locally K_bel reached 3. The possible ICME arrival expected today, corresponding to the CME from 15 December may increase the geomagnetic conditions (most likely up to minor storm levels).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 126, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Dec 2024

Wolf number Catania	118
10cm solar flux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	017
Estimated international sunspot number	116 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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