Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2025 Apr 13 1230 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity continued at high levels due to frequent low-level R1 (Minor) events. Region 4055 (N07W68, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced all M-class activity, the largest being an M2.3 flare at 13/0452 UTC. The region continued to develop as it approached the W limb. Minor growth was observed in Regions 4058 (N17W73, Dao/beta), 4061 (N19W09, Dro/beta), and 4060 (N09E15, Dao/beta) while Region 4056 (S08W26, Hsx/alpha) remained largely unchanged. Two filament eruptions were observed. The first was approximately 20 degrees long, centered near S20E20, and began erupting after ~12/2130 UTC. The second filament was approximately 12 degrees long, centered near S22W09, and began erupting after ~13/0500 UTC. CME signatures were observed in subsequent coronagraph imagery following each event. Analysis and modeling is ongoing.

Прогноз

Solar activity is expected to reach R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels, with a slight chance for isolate R3 (Strong) events, on 13-15 Apr, due primarily to the flare potential from Region 4055.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Прогноз

The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 15 Apr. There is a slight chance the greater than 10 MeV proton flux could reach S1 (Minor) levels due to the flare potential of Region 4055.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters remained enhanced as influence from the negative polarity CH HSS continued. Total magnetic field strength was between 3-10 nT. The Bz component varied between -9 and +5 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from ~400 km/s to a peak of ~550 km/s around 13/0230 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.

Прогноз

The solar wind environment is expected to continue under a negative polarity CH HSS regime through 13-14 Apr. CH effects should wane over 15 Apr.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to continuing CH HSS effects.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, on 13 Apr due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue into 14 Apr, with a slight chance for isolated G1 (Minor) periods, as CH effects wane. Conditions are then expected to return to quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Apr solar wind conditions return to background levels.