Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2025 Mar 23 1230 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4028 (S17W66, Cro/beta) produced a C 3.6 flare at 23/0045 UTC as it underwent gradual decay. Region 4035 (N15W08, Dro/beta) tacked on a few C-class flares to include a C5.0 flare at 22/1727 UTC, which was the largest of the period. New spots were observed forming just behind AR 4035, but remain unnumbered at this time. Region 4036 (N07W53, Dsi/beta-gamma) continued its evolving trend as it grew, consolidated its leading spots and developed asymmetric penumbra in its trailing spots. The remaining numbered active regions remained simple and were relatively quiet. Analysis of a southwesterly CME first seen in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at approximately 22/1612 UTC suggests that this event may be associated with a prominence eruption that can be seen taking place in GOES-16 SUVI 304 imagery beginning at 22/1357 UTC. The presence of this prominence eruption coupled with a lack of reported radio sweeps seemingly suggests that this particular CME does not have an Earth-directed component.

Прогноз

C-class flare activity is expected, with a chance for isolated M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares, over 23-25 Mar.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux returned to background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels through 25 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) levels over 23-25 Mar.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

The solar wind environment reflected waning CME and negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total field decreased from 15 nT to 5-6 nT. The Bz component began the period deflected southward reaching minimums of -5 to -10 nT, but was otherwise mostly benign after 22/1645 UTC. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased from peaks near 520 km/s and ended the period just under 430 km/s. Phi underwent long oscillations between solar sectors.

Прогноз

A strong enhancement of the solar wind environment is likely on 23 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 21 Mar. Lingering enhancements are likely to wane over the course of 24 Mar. An additional enhancement is likely on 25 Mar due to CIR effects followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels.

Прогноз

Periods of G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming are likely on 23 Mar due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 21 Mar and negative polarity CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storms are likely on 24 Mar as lingering CME and negative polarity CH HSS effects wane. Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 25 Mar due to CIR effects followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences.