Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2024 Dec 23 0030 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity reached moderate levels (R1/Minor). Region 3932 (S17E42, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced an impulsive M1.1 flare at 22/2049 UTC; the largest event of the period. Development continued among the cluster of active regions in the SE quadrant. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available data.

Прогноз

M-class flare activity is likely (R1/R2-Minor/Moderate), with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare (R3/Strong), over 23-25 Dec.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained elevated above background but well below the S1 threshold, mostly due to activity that erupted on the far side of the Sun over 20 Dec. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal and moderate levels.

Прогноз

There remains a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 23-25 Dec. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 25 Dec.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters were enhanced this period. Total field reached a peak of 9 nT and Bz varied between +8/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between ~500-700 km/s through most of the period. Phi angle was negative.

Прогноз

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail over 23-25 Dec. Negative polarity CH HSS influences are expected over 23-25 Dec and there is a chance to see the glancing influences of a CME (from 20 Dec) on 24 Dec.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active periods, over 23-25 Dec due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. An additional enhancement is possible on 24 Dec from the glancing influences of a CME that left the Sun on 20 Dec.