Прогноз Космічної Погоди - Обговорення

Випущено: 2024 Sep 21 0030 UTC
Надано Міністерством торгівлі США, NOAA, Центром прогнозування космічної погоди і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.com

Сонячна активність

Підсумок за добу

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 3831 (N12W09, Dao/beta) produced the strongest event of the period, a C3.9 flare at 20/1457 UTC. Minor growth was observed in its trailer spot over the past 24 hours. Three new sunspot groups were assigned numbers: Region 3832 (N13W45, Cro/beta), Region 3833 (N21W02, Bxo/beta), and Region 3834 (S14E65, Dso/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Прогноз

There is a chance for solar activity to reach moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 21-23 Sep.

Заряджені Частинки

Підсумок за добу

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 1,240 pfu at 20/1820 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Прогноз

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels on 21-23 Sep. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below warning threshold over 21-23 Sep.

Сонячний Вітер

Підсумок за добу

Solar wind parameters were near background levels. Total magnetic field strength was between 4-7 nT. The Bz component was primarily northward. Solar wind speeds ranged from ~375-425 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Прогноз

Solar wind parameters are likely to increase above background levels over 21-22 Sep due to the anticipated onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind parameters will likely return to nominal levels on 23 Sep.

Геопростір

Підсумок за добу

The geomagnetic field was quiet and unsettled.

Прогноз

The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to unsettled conditions over 21-22 Sep due to anticipated CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are expected on 23 Sep.