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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Mar 16 1228 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Mar 2014	141	006
17 Mar 2014	141	018
18 Mar 2014	141	008

Bulletin

There were five C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, released by NOAA AR 12003, 12005, and 11998. The brightest flare was a C7.3 flare produced by AR 12003 peaking at 06:45 UT on March 16. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (over 90%) and for M flares around 55%, mainly from AR 12003 and returning region AR 11986. CACTUS detected a CME on LASCO C2 and C3 images starting at 3:36 UT on March 16. This CME was also observed by the coronagraphs COR2 A and COR2 B, and is most probably related to the filament eruption that took place around 02:54 UT near 25S45E. This CME will probably not be geoeffective. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by ACE varied between about 360 and 410 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between about 1.5 and 4.5 nT. In the past 24 hours, quiet geomagnetic levels were registered (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1). Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on March 16. Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are possible on March 17 and 18, due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 087, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Mar 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	079 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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