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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Apr 12 1147 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Major magstorm expected (A>=50 or K>=6)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Apr 2014	140	048
13 Apr 2014	145	020
14 Apr 2014	150	011

Bulletin

Four C-class flares were observed originating from Catania sunspot region 24 (NOAA AR 2035), the largest one being a C5.3 peaking at 15:01 UT, April 11. The C5.3 flare was associated with an Eastward directed CME (first measurement of LASCO/C2 at 14:48 UT) with angular width of about 100 degrees and speed of 568 km/s as estimated by CACTus. At most a shock could arrive at Earth around 12h UT on April 14. More C-class flares are expected during the next 48 hours, especially from Catania sunspot region 24. Also an isolated M-class flare is possible. ACE observed an increase in the magnitude of the IMF from 7 to 11 nT, with a negative Bz currently reaching -9 nT. This resulted in active to minor storm magnitude conditions during the first half the UT day (local K=4 at Dourbes and even NOAA Kp=5). Solar wind speed has gradually declined to 350 km/s. Unsettled to maximally major storm conditions are expected due to currently negative Bz and the arrival of the CH high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 053, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Apr 2014

Wolf number Catania	083
10cm solar flux	138
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	047 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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