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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Dec 19 1223 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Dec 2014	210	008
20 Dec 2014	210	029
21 Dec 2014	210	014

Bulletin

The Sun released two M flares and seven high C flares during the past 24 hours. Most flares were produced by NOAA AR 2242 and 2241. An M6.9 flare was released by AR 2241 and peaked at 21:58 UT on December 18. An associated Type II radio burst was observed by the Palehua station on Hawaii, with an estimated shock speed of 664 km/s. LASCO C3 shows images of a probably associated halo CME after a data gap, first observed at 00:27 UT on December 19. Based on the estimated Type II shock speed, it is estimated that this CME will arrive at Earth around 0h UT on December 22. The second M flare was an M1.3 flare released by AR 2237 around 9:44 UT on December 19. There is a chance for proton storms in the days ahead. During the past 24 hours, solar wind speeds observed by ACE were nominal between about 330 and 430 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between about 6 to 8 nT. During the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 19. Active (K Dourbes = 4) to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5) are possible on December 20 and 21 in view of the expected arrival of the halo CME from December 17.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 119, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	197
10cm solar flux	213
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	123 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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