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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2014 Dec 20 1246 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Dec 2014	213	027
21 Dec 2014	213	020
22 Dec 2014	213	023

Bulletin

The Sun released one X flare and eight C flares during the past 24 hours, all of them produced by beta-gamma-delta region NOAA AR 2242. The X1.8 flare was released by AR 2242 and peaked at 00:27 UT on December 20. Associated Type II radio bursts were observed by the Palehua and Culgoora stations, with estimated shock speeds of 900 and 850 km/s, respectively. While the halo CME of December 17 is expected to arrive around 15h UT on December 20, the halo CME of December 19 is expected to arrive around 23h UT on December 20. A new CME was first observed by LASCO C3 at 9:18 UT on December 20, after a data gap. It is probably associated to the X1.8 flare which peaked at 00:27 UT. There is a chance for a glancing blow from this CME with estimated arrival time around 6h UT on December 22. M and even X flaring from AR 2242 and AR 2241 are possible in the next 24 hours. There is a chance for proton storms in the days ahead. During the past 24 hours, solar wind speeds observed by ACE were nominal between about 340 and 390 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between about 6 to 8 nT. During the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 2 and 3). Active to minor storm geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 6) are likely on December 20, 21 and 22, with a chance for major storm periods (K Dourbes = 6) in view of the expected arrival of the CMEs from December 17, 19, and 20.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 094, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Dec 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	216
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	115 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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