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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 May 14 1234 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 May 2016	094	012
15 May 2016	096	018
16 May 2016	095	009

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been increased with respect to the previous 2 days. The largest flare is ongoing C9 class flare, most probably coming from the western hemisphere of the solar disk, which already peaked at 11:30 UT today. Another C2.5 class flare was produced by Active Region (AR) 2543 (Dao:Beta), which peaked at 09:31 UT this morning. Eight more B class flares were observed over the past 24 hours. AR 2542, AR 2543, AR 2545 are going to move over the solar limb in the next 2-3 days, while one returning region will appear at the East limb within next 24 hours. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar proton fluxes have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a probability of C-class flares. The solar wind parameters variations started to increase around midnight today due to the beginning of the expected solar sector boundary crossing by the Earth. The solar wind speed has increased from approximately 350 km/s till 400 km/s at 12:00 UT today. The total magnetic field strength also increased till about 9 nT in magnitude. The Bz component decreased from -5 nT till -8 nT (at 12:00 UT today). Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low today. However, from tomorrow one can expect active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 087, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 13 May 2016

Wolf number Catania	070
10cm solar flux	093
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	074 - Based on 29 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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