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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2016 May 15 1256 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 May 2016	101	009
16 May 2016	103	028
17 May 2016	105	007

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has slightly increased with respect to the previous 2 days. Seven C-class flares were produced by Active Regions (ARs) AR 2543 and AR 2544. The largest flare was a C7.4 class flare, produced by AR 2543 (Gao:Beta), which peaked at 11:34 UT yesterday. AR 2542, AR 2543 are going to move over the solar limb in the next 2 days, while one returning region will appear at the East limb. There is currently a small transequatorial negative coronal hole on disk, which will approach the disk center in 2-3 days. 10.7 cm radioflux index slightly increased with respect to the previous days. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected. Solar protons have remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours with a probability of C-class flares and some minor probability for M-class flare. The solar wind parameters have been affected by the sector boundary crossing from the negative sector to the positive one. The solar wind speed has increased from approximately 320 km/s (at 20:00 UT yesterday) to 460 km/s (at 12:00 UT today). The total magnetic field strength in solar wind has increased till approximately 12-13 nT, while the Bz component fluctuates between -10 nT and 10 nT approximately, simultaneously with the transition of the Phi angle. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 1-3 (NOAA) and local K index 1-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low today. Around midday tomorrow, one can expect even more agitated solar wind parameters (speed and magnetic field) due to the expected transition of the Earth through the co-rotating interaction region. A minor geomagnetic storm can be expected tomorrow.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 086, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 14 May 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	101
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	088 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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