Prohlížíte si archiv sobota 17. července 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jul 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jul 2021	078	005
18 Jul 2021	076	001
19 Jul 2021	074	001

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels during the last 24 hours, with several B-class flares been detected. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2842 (Catania group 17) had flux emergence and produced three B-class flares in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 2843 (Catania group 18) produced several B-class flares and maintained its complexity during the last 24 hours. The new NOAA AR 2844 is magnetically complex, and also produced several B-class flares. NOAA (AR) 2842 is likely to maintain its activity at the same level with a small chance of C-class flares. NOAA AR 2843 (Catania group 18) is likely to produce more B-class flares with a fair chance of C-class activity. NOAA AR 2844 is expected to produce more B-class flares with a good chance of C-class activity and a small chance of an M-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind speed dropped gradually from an initial value of 460 km/s to 390 km/s during the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field remained at low levels between 2 and 5 nT, while the Bz was close to zero with values varying between -3 and 4 nT in the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly negative (directed towards the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain in the slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet globally (NOAA Kp 1-2) and quiet to moderate locally (K Dourbes 1-3). For the next 24 hours they are expected to be at quiet levels both globally and locally.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 045, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jul 2021

Wolf number Catania	026
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	033 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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