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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2021 Jul 18 1242 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Jul 2021	080	003
19 Jul 2021	078	001
20 Jul 2021	076	001

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels during the last 24 hours, with several B-class flares been detected. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2842 (Catania group 17) produced only one B-class flare in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 2843 (Catania group 18) produced most of the flare activity during the last 24 hours, including the brightest flare of B9.7 magnitude. NOAA AR 2844 has now turned in Earth-view and produced a number of B-class flares during the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 2845 continues to grow but did not produce any noticeable activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 2842 is expected to continue at the same level of activity for the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 2843 has now turned away from Earth view hence no more flare activity is likely to be detected. NOAA AR 2844 is expected to remain at the same level of activity, with a good chance of a C-class flare in the next 24 hours. NOAA AR 2845 is expected to grow and increase its flare activity during the next 24 hours.

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed by LASCO-C2/SOHO 18 July 02:48UT that is possibly Earth-directed. It speed estimation is around 600 km/s. It is expected to reach Earth around 20 July. A filament eruption was observed by SDO/AIA 193 18 July 10:24 UT, however, its geo-effectiveness can only be assessed when more coronograph images are available.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

The solar wind speed was between 370 and 420 km/s during the last 24 hours. The total magnetic field remained low, with values between 2 and 6 nT in the last 24 hours. The Bz was also low, with values between -3 and 5 nT during the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly negative (directed towards the Sun) during the last 24 hours. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain in the slow solar wind regime for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 1-2 and K Dourbes 0-2). They are expected to be at quiet levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 045, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Jul 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	045 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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