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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jan 20 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Jan 2022	105	007
21 Jan 2022	102	011
22 Jan 2022	098	007

Bulletin

There are 4 visible active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 2929 produced an M5.5 flare peaking at 06:01 UT (and several C-class flares). This region is about to rotate over the west limb, but it can still produce C and M-class flares (and proton events at Earth).

The flare described above was related to a CME with an angular width of about 100 degrees, directed to the northwest with speeds around 1000 km/s. Since the source region was close to the limb, an Earth directed component is not likely (but a shock arrival cannot be discarded on 22-23 January).

As a consequence of the CME and M5.5 flare, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux exceeded the 10 pfu threshold, it is now close to 20 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been slightly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain close to the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed at Earth decreased to about 470 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both at local and planetary levels (K_Bel 1 - 3, Kp 1 - 3). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, with possible active conditions if the CME from 18 January arrives to the Earth (expected late on 21 January).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 057, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	058
10cm solar flux	105
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	023
Estimated Ap	024
Estimated international sunspot number	058 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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