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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jan 21 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Jan 2022	099	011
22 Jan 2022	097	010
23 Jan 2022	095	010

Bulletin

There are 5 visible active regions on the solar disk, but none has produced C-class flares or higher in the past 24 hours. NOAA AR 2929 and 2930, that produced most of the activity in the last days, are rotating over the west limb, and the others are reducing in size and complexity. C-class flares can still be expected in the next 24 hours.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux had exceeded the 10 pfu threshold yesterday, but it’s now back to values below the threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain close to the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed at Earth decreased to about 420 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field around 4 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K_Bel 0 - 2 and Kp 1 - 2). The CME from 18 January may arrive to the Earth in the coming 24 hours, increasing geomagnetic conditions to active or even minor storm levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 023, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	075
10cm solar flux	099
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	058 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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