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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jan 25 1246 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Jan 2022	096	018
26 Jan 2022	097	017
27 Jan 2022	098	017

Bulletin

Solar activity showed some C-class flare activity over the last 24 hours. Several new sunspot groups (Catania sunspot group 14, 15 (NOAA-AR 2935) and 16) emerged on the disc but did not sow any flaring activity above B-level. The sunspot group (Catania sunspot group 17, at the East limb) is currently rotating over the visible disc and has produced several C-class flare. Solar activity is expected to increase slightly with further C-class flare in the next 24 hours especially produced by the sunspot group located at the East limb (Catania sunspot group 17).

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours. A solar dimming has been detected in Catania sunspot group 15 (NOAA-AR 2935) associated with the B3-class flare on January 25 peaking at 06:00 UTC. No signature in the coronograph data yet, further information will be provided as data comes in.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to be close to the threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to be at between nominal and moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters at Earth started to be enhanced: the solar wind speed increased from 280 km/s to 380 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field reached 13 nT, and its southward Bz-component fluctuated between -9 nT and 10 nT. The enhanced measurements indicated a possible combination of effects from the expected arrival of the CME that erupted on 22 January at 10:36 UTC and the soon arrival of the solar high-speed stream associated with the Coronal Hole with positive magnetic polarity, that crossed the central meridian on January 21.

Geomagnetic conditions became unsettled locally (K_Bel 3) and at planetary levels (Kp 3). The increasing geomagnetic conditions to active levels may occur in response to the arrival of the high-speed streams from an equatorial Coronal Hole (positive polarity).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 046, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	095
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	029 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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