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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2022 Jan 26 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Jan 2022	101	014
27 Jan 2022	102	013
28 Jan 2022	103	015

Bulletin

Solar activity was active over the last 24 hours with a C9.9-class flare on Jan 25 peaking at 23:49 UTC from the bipolar Catania sunspot group 17 (NOAA-AR 2936) that has now fully rotated over the visible disc. Several other sunspot groups are currently visible on the disc but did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar activity is expected be active with C-class flare in the next 24 hours and possible M-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to be close to the threshold or just above in the next 24 hours due to the increase of the solar wind speed. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence dropped to nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to be at between nominal and is expected to be at between nominal and moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters in Earth environment (as recorded by DSCOVR) remained enhanced: the solar wind speed continued to increase from about 380 km/s to 500 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field remained elevated between 5.0 nT and 11.7 nT, and its southward Bz-component fluctuated between -9.2 nT and 10.5 nT. The enhanced measurements indicated first the effects from the expected arrival of the CME that erupted on 22 January at 10:36 UTC, followed by the arrival of the solar high-speed stream associated with the Coronal Hole with positive magnetic polarity, that crossed the central meridian on January 21. A recurent equatorial coronal hole is currently facing Earth (positive polarity). The effect of the height-speed streams associated to this coronal hole is expected to impact the solar wind conditions in about 3 days.

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active locally (K_Bel 1-4) and at planetary levels (NOAA-Kp 2-3). Unsettled active geomagnetic conditions with possible active periods are expected to continue in response to the high-speed streams from an equatorial Coronal Hole (positive polarity).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 070, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	062
10cm solar flux	101
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	053 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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