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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Feb 05 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Feb 2023	139	007
06 Feb 2023	141	014
07 Feb 2023	143	007

Bulletin

There are four active regions visible on the solar disc, all of them with beta magnetic field configuration. The strongest flare in the past 24 hours was a C6.7 flare from an active region rotating into view from the east limb. Further C class flaring is expected, M-class flares are possible.

A filament erupted around 01:00 UTC east of NOAA AR 3207, leading to a slow (about 200 km/s) and weak CME, directed to the east. Several CMEs were the seen erupting from the limb close in time to this one. These CMEs are not expected to affect the Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

A negative polarity equatorial coronal hole crossed the central meridian on 3 February, its associated high speed stream is expected at the Earth tomorrow.

The solar wind speed at L1 is at 350 km/s with an interplanetary magnetic field around 6 nT, with mostly negative polarity (oriented towards the Sun). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both locally and at planetary levels. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours, until the arrival of the high speed stream when active conditions are expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 082, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Feb 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	079 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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