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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Mar 04 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Mar 2023	175	013
05 Mar 2023	175	011
06 Mar 2023	175	008

Bulletin

The solar flaring activity was at higher levels of the past 24 hours: An X2.0-class flare occurred with a peaking time at 17:52 UTC on March 03 in the most complex region on disc, NOAA active region 3234 (with a magnetic complexity of beta-gamma-delta). This was followed by a M1.0 with a peak time at 07:10 UTC on March 04 occurring in NOAA active region 3243. NOAA active regions 3236, 3242, and 3245 also produced C-class flares. The other region on the disc did not show any significant flaring activity. NOAA active region 3234 is currently located on the West the limb in the North-West of the visible disc seen from Earth and about the rotated over the disc, however flaring activity may still be visible from Earth. The flaring activity over the next 24 hours is expected to remain mostly at low levels with C-class flares, with possible isolated M-class flare or even X-class flare.

Several coronal mass ejections and flows were observed in the currently available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. No clear Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were identified.

The greater than 10 MeV protons flux was at the background levels over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to be at the background levels over the next day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux returned below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence has also returned to normal levels and is expected to remind at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

The solar wind environment near Earth is enhanced: The solar wind speed ranged between 500 km/s and 600 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic showed the values of 10 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, fluctuated between 7.2 nT and 8.3 nT. The source of this enhancement is the fast wind streams associated to the equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity that reached the central meridian on March 02. The solar wind conditions near Earth is expected to remain elevated for the next 2-3 days.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle in response of the solar wind enhancement associated to the equatorial coronal hole, and the more extended periods of southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, being negative. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to unsettle with possible short periods of active conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 121, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Mar 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	175
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	024
Estimated Ap	022
Estimated international sunspot number	121 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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