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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Nov 21 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Nov 2023	156	015
22 Nov 2023	160	015
23 Nov 2023	180	006

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3492 (Catania sunspot group 58) has been mostly active, producing C-class flares, including the C8.0 flare, which peaked at 20 November 12:31 UTC. NOAA AR 3489 (Catania sunspot group 52) developed further but remained rather inactive. NOAA ARs 3493 and 3494 (Catania sunspot group 59) have emerged on the south east quadrant as well as NOAA ARs 3496 (around N09E30).

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

An equatorial positive polarity coronal hole is in a geo- effective position today. The southern negative polarity coronal hole is crossing the central meridian. Finally, a mid latitude coronal hole positive coronal hole will cross central meridian on 22-23 November.

Solární bouře

The interplanetary magnetic field values increased, nearing to 14 nT. The north-south component reached down to -13 nT, but was mostly variable. About 20 November 17:00 UT it changed orientation from towards the Sun (negative sector) to away from the Sun (positive sector). Solar wind speed varied within the 260-370 km/s range. The high speed solar wind from the southern negative polarity coronal hole is expected to arrive to Earth in 24-48 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (both NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 1-4) over the past 24 hours. It is possible geomagnetic conditions reach active levels over the next 24 hours, due to high-speed stream arrivals.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels, it is expected to stay at those levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 161, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	119
10cm solar flux	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	098 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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