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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Nov 22 1247 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
22 Nov 2023	172	023
23 Nov 2023	190	012
24 Nov 2023	220	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3492 (Catania sunspot group 58) was possibly the source of the strongest flare over the past 24 hours, the C8.9 flare, which peaked at 22 November 06:28 UTC. NOAA AR 3489 (Catania sunspot group 52) has remained complex, with low level flaring activity.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A number of filament eruptions have been observed. A CME as seen in Lasco C2 on 22 November 06:48 UT is believed to be associated with the filament eruption with source region about S20E40, occurring on 22 November 06:12 UT. The CME is currently being investigated for any minor chance of a glancing blow.

Koronální díra

The southern negative polarity coronal hole will be in a geo-effective position over the next 24 hours. The mid latitude coronal hole positive coronal hole should cross central meridian on about 23 November.

Solární bouře

Earth is under the influence of the high speed stream from the positive polarity northern coronal hole. The interplanetary magnetic field reached occasionally 15 nT  and in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun).. The north-south component neared down to -14 nT, but was mostly variable. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 595 km/s and remains elevated. High speed stream are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, albeit with less severity.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm conditions(NOAA Kp 5) over the past 24 hours. It is expected for geomagnetic conditions to reach active levels over the next 24 hours, due to high-speed stream arrivals.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold, as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to increase towards moderate levels in the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels, it is expected too increase towards moderate levels for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 165, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 21 Nov 2023

Wolf number Catania	193
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	035
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	160 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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