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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2023 Dec 19 1300 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Dec 2023	162	011
20 Dec 2023	162	007
21 Dec 2023	163	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels with several C-class flares during the last 24 hours. The largest reported flare was GOES C7.4 flare, which peaked at 03:04 UT on Dec 19, from NOAA AR 3528. During the flare, the source region (AR 3528) of the flare had beta-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Apart from NOAA AR 3528, NOAA AR 3526 also produced several C-class flares. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hour.

Koronální díra

A negative polarity coronal hole is continuing to cross the central meridian and a high-speed stream from this coronal hole may arrive to Earth from December 22.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were disturbed under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Dec 17. The solar wind speed ranged between 440 km/s to 720 km/s. The North- South component (Bz) ranged between -10 and 9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 2 nT to 12 nT. Possible disturbances in solar wind parameters due to any remnants from HSSs arrives at Earth in the coming 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to Minor storm conditions (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 5), due to the arrival of high speed streams from the positive polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on Dec 17. The geomagnetic condition is expected to be quiet to active conditions probably in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence continues to be at normal level. It is expected that this parameter will remain below the threshold level in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 170, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	208
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	040
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	026
Estimated international sunspot number	141 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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