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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Feb 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Feb 2024	182	014
16 Feb 2024	180	016
17 Feb 2024	178	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C7.5 flare, peaking at 17:56 UTC on Feb 14, associated with NOAA AR 3576 (beta-gamma-delta). NOAA AR 3576 remains the most complex and active AR on the visible solar disc and is now approaching the west limb. Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3584 (alpha) and by NOAA 3585 (beta), which has now rotated onto the visible disc. Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours with likely M-class flaring and a chance for an isolated X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Two halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data at 22:24 UTC on February 12 and 04:12 UTC on February 14, directed primarily to the North-East and South-West from Earth's perspective. Both CMEs have no clear on disc signatures and are deemed to be back-sided, with no expected impact on Earth. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

The solar wind parameters indicated a weak transient magnetic field structure, likely one of the predicted glancing CME arrivals. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude reached 9 nT around 22:27 UTC on February 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 430 km/s and 490 km/s, while the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -3 nT and 7 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to gradually return to slow solar wind conditions over the next few days.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL: 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance of isolated active periods over the next 24 hours, due to ongoing CME influences.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has displayed a gradually decreasing trend over the last 24 hours and is has been below the 10 pfu threshold since around 19:30 UTC on February 14. It is expected that the proton flux will remain elevated but below the threshold for the next days, with a small chance that it may exceed the threshold if there are further high energy flares and eruptions.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 138, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	138
10cm solar flux	184
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	143 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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