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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 13 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Mar 2024	131	014
14 Mar 2024	129	016
15 Mar 2024	127	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are five active regions visible on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3599 is decaying in size and complexity (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration), but still producing most of the recent flaring. The strongest flare was a C2.7 that peaked at 18:15 UTC on 12 March, from NOAA AR 3599. More C-class flares are expected, M-class flares are possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

An equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on March 10. The high speed solar wind from this coronal hole may arrive at Earth in the next 24 hours.

Solární bouře

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 430 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 7 nT. The arrival of the high speed stream expected for today may create disturbed conditions. There are low chances of seeing a glancing blow from the 10 March CME.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both global and locally (NOAA_Kp up to 3 and K_BEL up to 3). A glancing blow from the 10 March CME and a high speed stream could arrive in the next 24 hours and cause up to minor storm levels.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 081, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	116
10cm solar flux	131
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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