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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 12 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Mar 2024	127	007
13 Mar 2024	125	016
14 Mar 2024	123	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

There are four active regions visible on the solar disk. NOAA AR 3599 is the only one with a complex magnetic field configuration (beta-gamma-delta), and producing most of the recent flaring. The strongest flare was a C3.9, that peaked at 11:35 UTC, from NOAA AR 3599. M-class flares can be expected, X-class flares are possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

An equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on March 10. The high speed solar wind from this coronal hole may arrive at Earth on 13 March.

Solární bouře

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 420 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Similar solar wind conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours. A high speed stream and a glancing blow from the 11 March CME will probably create disturbed conditions in the second half of 13 March.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA_Kp up to 3 and K_BEL up to 2). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. After that, a glancing blow from the 11 March CME and a high speed stream could arrive on 13 March and cause active conditions.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was slightly above the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 093, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	108
10cm solar flux	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	074 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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