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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 11 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Mar 2024	127	007
12 Mar 2024	127	007
13 Mar 2024	125	016

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours. The strongest reported flare was an M7.4 flare which peaked at 12:13 UTC on 10 March, from NOAA AR 3599. This region has evolved into a beta-gamma-delta magnetic field configuration and can produce M and X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

The M7.4 flare from NOAA AR 3599 was related to dimmings and an EUV wave and CME directed towards the west. The CME was not very wide (apparent angular width of about 70 degrees) and speed close to 500 km/s. We may see a glancing blow of this CME on 13 March. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

An equatorial (positive polarity) coronal hole crossed the central meridian on March 10. The high speed solar wind from this coronal hole may arrive at Earth on 13 March.

Solární bouře

The Earth is inside slow solar wind, with speeds close to 380 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 3 nT. Similar solar wind conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet levels (NOAA_Kp and K_BEL 0 to 2). Similar conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. Since NOAA AR 3599 has a complex magnetic field configuration, it is located in the western hemisphere and has been active in terms of flares and CMEs in the last 24 hours, a proton event in the next 24 hours may not be discarded.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux from GOES 16 was slightly above the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal level and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 071, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	127
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 08 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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