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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 02 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Mar 2024	150	006
03 Mar 2024	148	010
04 Mar 2024	150	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flares were two C2.9 flares with peak times at 05:18 UTC on March 2 (from NOAA AR 3590, beta) and 05:50 UTC on March 2 (from NOAA AR 3595, beta-gamma). Weaker C-class flares were observed from NOAA ARs 3595, 3598, and 3599. There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta) remains the largest complex region on the disk, and is starting to rotate around the north-west limb. NOAA AR 3595 (beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the disk. In the past 24 hours, NOAA AR 3592 (alpha) reemerged with a single, rudimentary spot. NOAA AR 3598 (beta) is growing in size and magnetic complexity, while a new active region (NOAA AR 3599, alpha) produced a few low-level C-class flares close to the east limb. A new yet unnumbered active region is rotating into the visible disk from the south- east limb (currently around S13E82). All other regions were inactive. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

Based on currently available coronagraph images, no Earth directed coronal mass ejections have been observed in the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A small high latitude positive polarity coronal hole is passing the central meridian, in the southern hemisphere of Sun. No impact from this coronal hole is expected at Earth.

Solární bouře

Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. Throughout this period, the solar wind speed decreased from about 380 km/s to about 310 km/s, and the total interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 2 nT and 5 nT. The magnetic field Bz (north-south) component remained mostly negative and reached a minimum of -4 nT. The phi-angle fluctuated between the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) and the positive sector (away from the Sun). In the next 24 hours, we expect slow solar wind conditions with a chance of enhanced conditions due to the possible flank arrival of the CME first observed in LASCO/C2 around 17:48 UTC on February 28.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (Kp 2 and K Bel 2) in the past 24 hours. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected to prevail during the next 24 hours. However, active geomagnetic conditions may be reached in relation to a possible glancing blow CME arrival

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	180
10cm solar flux	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	117 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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