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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Mar 29 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Mar 2024	168	004
30 Mar 2024	160	008
31 Mar 2024	145	012

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at high levels. The largest flare of the period was an X1.1 flare with peak time 20:56 UTC March 28. This flare originated from Catania region 22 (NOAA AR 3615), which is the largest and most complex region on disk (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta). This region produced the majority of the flaring activity including four further M-class flares. Catania region 31 (NOAA AR 3620) decayed into a plage region. The remaining few active regions on disk are all simple and were either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Koronální díra

A positive polarity coronal hole in the southern hemisphere continues to traverse the central meridian since March 27.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from values around 430 km/s to around 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 0 and 5 nT. The Bz component reached a minimum value of -2 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched between the positive and negative sectors. The solar wind speed is expected to reflect slow solar wind conditions on March 29 and March 30. Possible enhancements in the solar wind speed, due to a weak high-speed stream associated with the positive polarity coronal holes, may be expected from March 31.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 3 and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on March 29 to March 30.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase in response to any strong flares from NOAA AR 3615

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to exceed this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to increase to normal to moderate levels over the next day.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 079, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	100 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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