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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Aug 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Aug 2024	229	007
18 Aug 2024	233	017
19 Aug 2024	237	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was a M1.65-flare, with peak time 10:30 UTC on August 17 and is associated with NOAA AR 3784 (beta- gamma-delta). The second largest flare was a M1.33-flare, with peak time 13:20 UTC on August 16 and is associated with an active region over the west limb. There are currently 10 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3784 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex regions on disk. NOAA AR 3790 (beta-gamma) has produces most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3786 (beta) has started to rotate over the west limb. NOAA AR 3782 has turned into a plage region. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a small chance for an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Solární bouře

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed varied between 306 km/s to 363 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 7 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -5 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the positive. The solar wind is expected to become perturbed to the expected arrival of an CME from August 14.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1 - 3 and K BEL 1 - 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to reach active levels in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 206, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Aug 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	225
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	203 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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