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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Sep 2024	204	026
14 Sep 2024	200	016
15 Sep 2024	195	006

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high during the past 24 hours with seven M-class flares detected, including two above the M5.0 level. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3811 (magnetic configuration Beta- Gamma, Catania sunspot group no 89) produced four M-class flares including an M6.8 at 12 Sep 14:43 UTC and a double-peaked M5.3 at 12 Sep 06:56 UTC. Two M-class flares (an M1.6 at 12 Sep 15:06 UTC and a M2.1 at 12 Sep 22:27 UTC) were produced by a yet-unnamed AR at S15E87 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma) and an M2.9 flare was emitted from NOAA AR 2814 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma-Delta, Catania sunspot group no 83) at 13 Sep 08:37 UTC. As NOAA AR 3811 now turns away from Earth's view most of its activity is expected to be obscured by the solar limb. However, the yet-unnamed AR at the East limb is likely to produce M-class flaring activity in the next 24 hours and has a small chance of an X-class flare.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A southern coronal hole (CH) with positive polarity started crossing the solar central meridian during the past 24 hours. The resulting High Speed Streams (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective on 16 Sep.

Solární bouře

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained affected by the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) at 12 Sep 03:00 UTC. The SW speed varied between 450 and 620 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) peaked at 30 nT and has since dropped to 6 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -26 and 17 nT, while the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away from the Sun exclusively in the past 24 hours. Although the effects of the CME have started to wane, the arrival of a High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to further disturb the SW conditions in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The global geomagnetic conditions reach major storm levels during 12 Sep 12:00-15:00 UTC (NOAA Kp 7) and 18:00-21:00 UTC (NOAA Kp 7-). Outside these periods, moderate storm (NOAA Kp 6+ at 12 Sep 15:00-18:00 UTC) and minor storm (NOAA Kp 5 at 13 Sep 00:00-03:00 UTC and Kp 5- at 12 Sep 21:00-00:00 and 13 Sep 03:00-06:00 UTC) levels were also registered. Locally the situation was milder, with K BEL at moderate storm levels for the period of 12 Sep 12:00-21:00 UTC. For the rest of the past 24 hours the local geomagnetic conditions were active (K BEL 4) or unsettled (K BEL 3). For the next 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions are expected to register active levels (NOAA Kp and K BEL up to 4).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at nominal levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at very low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 120, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	190
10cm solar flux	201
AK Chambon La Forêt	084
AK Wingst	052
Estimated Ap	061
Estimated international sunspot number	146 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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