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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 14 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Sep 2024	182	020
15 Sep 2024	178	015
16 Sep 2024	176	011

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high with four M-class flares detected over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3825 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group no 1) produced all four of these flares: an M1.2 at 13 Sep 15:08 UTC, an M1.4 at 13 Sep 17:56 UTC, an M1.1 at 13 Sep 20:49 UTC, and an M3.0 at 14 Sep 07:41. A fifth peak at M1.1 level was registered by GOES-18 as lasting form 14 Sep 03:10 to 07:22 UTC, however this is most likely not a single event but the combination of numerous C-class flares in close succession. More M-class flaring activity is expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from NOAA AR 3825.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO C2/SOHO images starting from 13 Sep 01:30. This event is associated with an M1.6 flare located at the west solar limb and has an estimated speed of 1250 km/s. A glancing blow is expected to affect the Earth's atmosphere early on 15 Sep. Two back-sided CME can also been seen in LASCO C2/SOHO images starting from 12 Sep 21:30 UTC and 13 Sep 10:10 UTC. As back-sided events, they are not expected to affect Earth.

Solární bouře

Solar Wind (SW) conditions are gradually returning to a slow SW regime. During the past 24 hours the SW speed dropped from 570 km/s to 380 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 4 nT and 10 nT. The North-South component of the magnetic field (Bz) varied between -10 and 6 nT and the interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed predominately away from the Sun. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to disturb the SW conditions in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The global geomagnetic conditions reached moderate major storm levels (NOAA Kp 6) during the 13 Sep 21:00-24:00 UTC period. For the rest of the past 24 hours NOAA Kp varied between Kp 3+ and Kp 4+ (unsettled to active). The local geomagnetic conditions were milder and reached minor storm levels (K BEL 5) during the 14 Sep 00:00-03:00 UTC period. For the rest of the past 24 hours conditions ranged between quiet (K BEL 2) and active (K BEL 3) levels. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to become geo-effective in the next 24 hours, but the effect to the geomagnetic conditions is likely to be minor. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to prevail both locally and globally.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by GOES-18, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the 13 Sep 15:50 UTC to 14 Sep 04:55 UTC period. The peak of the flux was observed to be 7000 pfu at 13 Sep 20:30 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at increased levels but below the alert threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence increased significantly during the past 24 hours, however it remained at normal levels (ie below the 5e7 pfu threshold). For the next 24 hours it is expected to remain at normal levels.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 118, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	131
10cm solar flux	186
AK Chambon La Forêt	040
AK Wingst	032
Estimated Ap	033
Estimated international sunspot number	120 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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