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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 02 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Sep 2024	225	013
03 Sep 2024	225	012
04 Sep 2024	225	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity reached high levels over the past 24 hours, with several C-class flares and five M-class flares detected. The largest flares were two M5.5 flare: the first peaked at 13:22 UTC on September 1, associated with NOAA AR 3813, and the second peaked at 13:31 UTC on September 1, associated with an active region behind the east limb (S23E86). There are currently ten numbered active regions visible on the disk, including a new region that rotated over the east limb (NOAA AR 3813). NOAA AR 3801, which is expected to rotate over the west limb in the next few hours, remained quiet. NOAA AR 3807 (beta-gamma class), which has grown in size, produced an M1.5 flare, peaking at 22:48 UTC on September 1. Other regions on the disk did not show any significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares possible and a low chance for isolated X-class flares

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting at 12:00 UTC on September 1. The CME is directed primarily to the southeast from Earth's perspective and is likely associated with an long-duration M5.5 flare. Due to the location of the source region, no impact on Earth is expected. No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged between 400 - 420 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 7 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 5 nT. Similar solar wind conditions are expected to prevail during the next days.

Geomagnetism

During the past 24 hours, the geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp=1-3, K-Dourbes = 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled in the next days.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux started to increased, but remained below the 10pfu threshold. This could be related to long-durational M5.5 flare and to the halo CME, detected at 12:00 UTC on September 1. It is expected that the proton flux will remain elevated but below the threshold for the next days, with a small chance that it may exceed the threshold if there are further high energy flares and eruptions.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 198, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	019
AK Wingst	019
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	181 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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