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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Sep 29 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Sep 2024	195	019
30 Sep 2024	197	017
01 Oct 2024	199	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The largest flare is ongoing (currently around C6), from a returning region rotating into view from the east limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 244 (NOAA Active Region 3836) currently located at S12E05 has a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration and was stable over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 65, a small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, crossed central meridian on 26 September, a HSS may be expected at the Earth in the next 24 hours.

Solární bouře

The Earth is inside a slow solar wind stream, with speeds around 350 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field of about 5 nT. A mild high speed solar wind stream may arrive in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled both locally and globally (K_Bel and Kp up to 3). Active conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has been at nominal levels, and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 16 and 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels, and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 164, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Sep 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	195
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	164 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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