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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Nov 18 1246 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Nov 2024	156	015
19 Nov 2024	160	011
20 Nov 2024	170	010

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares. The largest flare was an M2.5 flare peaking on November 18 at 10:58 UTC from an as yet unnumbered region rotating over the south-east limb. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889) the other largest region on disk also produced C-class flaring activity but is now approaching the east limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Koronální díra

SIDC Coronal Hole 79 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a negative polarity) has begun to cross the central meridian on November 18.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field continued to be slightly elevated, ranging between 5 and 9nT, with a minimum Bz of -7 nT. The solar wind speed ranged between 310 and 380 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to become slightly elevated over the next 24 hours due to the possible high-speed stream arrival associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 78, although this is low confidence.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with isolated active conditions possible due to any high- speed stream influence.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to continue to be below this threshold over the 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 crossed the 1000 pfu threshold briefly and is expected to again be at or near this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 110, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	085 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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