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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Nov 19 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Nov 2024	175	015
20 Nov 2024	184	007
21 Nov 2024	193	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 5 M-class flares. The largest flare was a M3.7 flare (SIDC Flare 2647), peaking on November 18 at 12:53 UTC, produced by newly numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 298 (NOAA Active Regions 3901), which also produced multiple other low-level M-class flares. SIDC Sunspot Group 288 (NOAA Active Region 3889), now near the west limb, also produced an M1.1 flare (SIDC Flare 2633) peaking on November 19 at 00:00 UTC. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind conditions predominantly reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field continued to be slightly elevated, ranging between 5 and 9nT, with a minimum Bz of -8 nT. The solar wind speed decreased from 470 km/s to around 340 km/s The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed towards the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux is expected to continue to be below this threshold over the 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was slightly elevated but remained below the 1000 pfu threshold briefly and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 126, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	129
10cm solar flux	165
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	115 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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