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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Dec 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Dec 2024	172	007
17 Dec 2024	172	007
18 Dec 2024	172	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the last 24 hours has been at moderate levels, with 1 M-class flare and several C-class ones. The strongest flare was an M3.1 flare peaking at 20:24 UTC on December 15, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 332 (NOAA AR 3920, magnetic type beta). There are currently six numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 337 (NOAA AR 3924, with magnetic type beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and M-flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

Solární bouře

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected mostly slow solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed values have been around 410 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field ranging between 5 and 10 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours. There are low chances to see an ICME arrival (corresponding to the CME from 14 December).

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally were quiet to unsettled (Kp 1-3) in the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions locally reached active levels (K_BEL 4). Mostly quiet conditions are expected with a small chance for active to minor storm intervals due to the possible ICME arrival on 17 December.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 094, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Dec 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	172
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	015
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	111 - Based on 09 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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