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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2024 Dec 21 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sluneční protony

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
21 Dec 2024	184	007
22 Dec 2024	186	007
23 Dec 2024	188	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

A total of 9 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 1 M-class flare identified. Most of the activity came from the sunspot groups that rotated into view over the east limb in the past days. The largest flare was a M1.9 flare (SIDC Flare 3030) peaking on December 21 at 00:38 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932). Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a chance for X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the last 24 hours.

Koronální díra

A small coronal hole, SIDC Coronal Hole 83 (equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity) crossed central meridian on December 20.

Solární bouře

The solar wind at Earth has a speed around 470 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT (DSCOVR). The interplanetary magnetic field has a negative polarity (towards the Sun). Similar slow solar wind conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled both globally and locally (Kp and K_Bel up to 3). Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater-than-10 MeV GOES proton flux has been slightly increasing since around 17:00 UTC on December 20. While it remains below the threshold and will probably not exceed it, the possibility of crossing the threshold within the next 24 hours cannot be excluded.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at normal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 164, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 20 Dec 2024

Wolf number Catania	212
10cm solar flux	184
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	015
Estimated international sunspot number	154 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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