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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jan 17 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Jan 2025	207	021
18 Jan 2025	220	022
19 Jan 2025	230	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 4 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M2.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3294) peaking on January 17 at 09:19 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 378 (NOAA Active Region 3964). A total of 6 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot group 378 (NOAA AR 3964) and SIDC Sunspot group 346 (NOAA AR 3961) are responsible for the majority of the flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares and M-class flares expected and C-class flares possible.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Koronální díra

The large east-west elongated negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) has finished crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth during the coming days.

Solární bouře

Slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are recorded over the past 24 hours, with solar wind speed that gradually increased to around 530 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field of 10nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -10 nT. Further enhancements of the solar wind speed are possible in the next 24h, due to the potential influence of the high-speed stream (HSS) associated with the coronal hole, which is crossing the central meridian since 11 Jan 2025.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally unsettled to active (Kp 4 and K Bel 4). Quiet to active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 157, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	208
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	130 - Based on 10 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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