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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Vydáno: 2025 Jan 16 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Sluneční erupce

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sluneční protony

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Jan 2025	175	021
17 Jan 2025	185	021
18 Jan 2025	195	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C4.4 flare (SIDC Flare 3284) peaking on January 16 at 07:26 UTC. There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 342 (NOAA AR 3959) and SIDC Sunspot Group 346 (NOAA Active Region 3961) are the most complex AR (beta-gamma-delta). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a chance of X-class flares.

Vyhazování koronální hmoty

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Koronální díra

The large east-west elongated negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) is still crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth starting on Jan 16 and following days.

Solární bouře

Slow solar wind conditions are recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind at the Earth is slightly enhanced with speeds around 500 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field of 7nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -6 nT. Further enhancements of the solar wind speed are possible in the next 24h, due to the potential influence of the high-speed stream (HSS) associated with the coronal hole, which started to cross the central meridian on 11 Jan 2025.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally unsettled to active (Kp 4) and locally unsettled (K Bel 3). Quiet to active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 127, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	016
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	085 - Based on 07 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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