Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2025 Apr 15 0030 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity has been at moderate levels with two M-Class (R1-Minor) flares during the period. All flare activity has been from Region 4055 (N07W92, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) which is moving beyond the west limb. It appeared to be growing before moving out of sight but is difficult to classify at this stage. Region 4061 (N18W29, Bxo/beta) had a brief period of flux emergence forming a ring-like structure before quickly dissipating. Region 4060 (N08E07, Dai/beta-gamma) saw an increase in spot count but has been quiet. A new region is coming around the eastern limb around S03 but remains to obscure to classify. A thin CME was observed in coronagraph imagery around 14/1500 UTC. A source could not be found on the Earth-side of the disk and modelling showed much of the plasma being ejected south below Earth.

Ennustus

Assuming persistent activity from Region 4055, theres an 80% chance that M-Class (R1-Minor) flares will continue 15-16 Apr. Probabilities for M-Class activity decrease to around 20% 17 Apr as the Region moves around the limb.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The geoeffective positioning of the high speed stream (HSS) associated with the negative polarity coronal hole (CH) in the southern hemisphere has maintained high electron flux at geostationary orbit for multiple days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at the GOES-19 satellite position saw a peak flux of 1460 pfu with GOES-18 reaching a peak of 3580 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has been at background.

Ennustus

HSS influence from the southerly CH will diminish into 16 Apr with potential reconnection with the HSS from the northerly CH 17 Apr. This will increase chances for the greater than 2 MeV electron flux to remain high during the diurnal maxima through 17 Apr. Barring any significant flares from Region 4055 which will remain in a favorable position into 16 Apr, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Minor enhancements remain in the solar wind parameters due to continued influence from the negative polarity CH HSS. Total field (Bt) remained around 5 nT with the north-south (Bz) component between +2/-5 nT. Wind speeds were between 4005-450 km/s with the phi angle remaining mostly in the negative (towards the Sun) orientation.

Ennustus

The solar wind environment will continue to see minor influences from the CH HSS into the 16 Apr. Enhancements of the solar wind are likely 16 Apr based on the expected arrival of a CME that was associated with two filament eruptions around 13/0800 UTC. Modelling of the CME shows variable speeds between 500-700 km/s. Similar, yet slightly lower, speeds are likely to be reflected in the solar wind upon arrival.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels.

Ennustus

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected, with isolated active periods, into 16 Apr as CH influence wanes. The geomagnetic field is likely to become enhanced to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming levels 16 Apr due to the arrival of the aforementioned CME (see Solar Wind section). Merging of the two CMEs increases chances for higher activity resulting in a slight chance for the field to reach G3 (Strong) levels during this time. -Bri