Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2025 Mar 25 1230 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity has been at low levels with only C-class flares being observed throughout the period. The largest flare was a C5.2 from Region 4035 (N15W29, Bxo/beta) at 24/0737 UTC. The region has been in decay with the loss of penumbra in its leading spot. Otherwise, most of the flare activity has been from Region 4036 (N07W72, Dhi/beta-gamma) which has grown in its leader spot as well as increased its length and area. Its magnetic field appears to be increasing in magnetic complexity, however due to its approach towards the western limb and the effects of foreshortening its difficult to determine what is real and what is an artifact. Multiple regions decayed to plage while others were stable. There have been a few faint, thin CMEs near both the east and west limbs throughout the period but nothing that was Earth-directed or of concern.

Ennustus

With many of the active regions in decay flare probabilities remain low. There remains a chance (30%) for isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity and a very low chance (5%) for X-class (R3 Strong).

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has been at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV electron flux was at background.

Ennustus

The electron flux at geostationary orbit is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels 25 Mar. With the arrival of the coronal hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS) electrons are expected to increase 26-27 Mar. If winds within the HSS are strong enough the greater than 2 MeV electron flux will be suppressed below geostationary orbit. Electrons will rebound as winds ease and likely approach the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background barring any notable flares from Region 4036 which is in a favorable position near the west limb.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME influences throughout the period. The total field has been between 10-12 nT. The Bz component has been hovering between 0 to -08 nT. Solar wind speeds have gradually declined from averages near 400 to ~350 km/s. The phi angle remained mostly in the negative (towards the Sun).

Ennustus

The large positive polarity CH is moving into the western hemisphere and will see impacts throughout the forecast. The co-rotating interacting region ahead of the HSS will arrive 25 Mar with the CH becoming geoeffective on 26 Mar. Wind speeds are expected to increase and the IMF will become enhanced throughout this time.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet to unsettled.

Ennustus

Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storms are likely on 25 Mar due to CIR effects followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) storm periods are likely to continue on 26 Mar due to persistent influences.