Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2025 Feb 22 0030 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar flare activity reached moderate levels. Region 4000 (N17E07, Dai/beta) produced two R1 (Minor) events, the largest of which was an M3.3/1b flare at 21/1215 UTC. Region 4000, alongside Region 3998 (S14W02, Eai/beta-gamma-delta), exhibited continued development over the past 24 hours. The remaining numbered regions on the visible disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. Other activity included a slow-moving eruption near Region 4000 early in the UT day. Analysis and modelling of the CME suggested the ejecta was headed north of Earth. No other potentially Earth-directed CMEs were identified in available coronagraph imagery.

Ennustus

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3, Strong) activity over 22-24 Feb.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit was at normal background to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Ennustus

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 22-24 Feb. There is a slight chance that the greater than 10 MeV proton flux reaches S1 (Minor) levels through 24 Feb due primarily to the flare potential from Regions 4000 and 3998.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength averaged near 5 nT, solar wind speeds steadily decreased from ~400 km/s to ~315 km/s by the end of the reporting period, and Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the the negative sector.

Ennustus

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at or near nominal levels through 24 Feb.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Ennustus

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels over 22-24 Feb.