Kosmoseilma ennustuse alane diskusioon

Välja antud: 2025 Jan 22 0030 UTC
Koostanud Ameerika Ühendriikide kaubandusosakond, NOAA, kosmoseilma prognoosikeskus (SWPC) ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-i poolt

Päikese aktiivsus

24 h summaarne

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an isolated M3.3/Sf flare at 21/1039 UTC from Region 3967 (S17E12, Eai/beta-gamma). Associated with this event was a Type II (estimated speed of 565 km/s) and a CME mostly directed off the SE limb beginning at 21/1145 UTC in GOES/CCOR-1 imagery. Modelling indicated a potential glancing blow mid to late on 24 Jan. Slight growth was observed in Region 3967. Slight decay occurred in the intermediate area of Region 3961 (S10W21, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). Only minor changes were noted in the rest of the spotted regions.

Ennustus

M-class flares are likely (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3, Strong), on 22-24 Jan.

Energeetilised osakesed

24 h summaarne

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Ennustus

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate with a chance for high levels through 24 Jan. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 22-24 Jan.

Päikese tuul

24 h summaarne

Solar wind speed continued to decline from approximately 660 km/s to near 500 km/s as CH HSS influence waned. Total field ranged from 3-6 nT while the Bz component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was predominantly negative until 21/1725 UTC, when it switched to a positive sector.

Ennustus

A slow return to nominal levels is expected through 23 Jan as HSS influence subsides. Around mid to late on 24 Jan, a glancing blow from the 21 Jan CME is likely to enhance solar wind parameters.

Georuum

24 h summaarne

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Ennustus

Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22 Jan followed by mostly quiet conditions on 23 Jan as HSS influence diminishes. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, is likely mid to late on 24 Jan due to the arrival of a glancing blow from the 21 Jan CME.