Previsioni Meteorologiche Spaziali - Discussione

Emesso: 2025 Apr 23 0030 UTC
Preparati dal Dipartimento di Commercio degli Stati Uniti, NOAA, Centro di Previsione Meteorologica Spaziale e elaborati da SpaceWeatherLive.com

Attività solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar activity has been at moderate levels due to an M1.3 flare at 22/1049 UTC from Region 4060 (N08, Lo=135) which has moved beyond the west limb. There are nine regions on the disk with most being fairly simple in their magnetic complexity. Region 4069 (S08E07, Cao/beta) experienced rapid flux emergence over the period and has moved into more of a ring-like structure. The region has been quiet with regards to flares but will be monitored given its increased potential for activity. There were three CMEs observed in coronagraph imagery between 22/09-12 UTC; the only one that had an earth directed component was off the S/SE from Region 4065 (S31W02, Hsx/alpha)around 22/0936 UTC. The CME was modelled with a weak glancing blow possible on 25 Apr, but confidence in magnitude is low. There is a very weak signal in the plasma density with little to no change in the wind speeds.

Previsione

Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance of M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over 23-25 Apr.

Particelle energetiche

Sommario di 24 ore

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Previsione

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels over 23-25 Apr due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Vento Solare

Sommario di 24 ore

Solar wind parameters continued to show influences from the positive polarity CH HSS. Total field was near 9 nT at the start of the period and has decreased slightly to 5 nT. The Bz component was variable between +/-5 nT. Solar wind speeds have been between 600-700 km/s. The phi angle has been mostly positive with intermittent periods into the negative.

Previsione

Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be influenced by positive polarity, CH HSS conditions through 25 Apr. Theres a chance solar wind speeds could reach 700-800 km/s based on this CHs history.

Geospaziale

Sommario di 24 ore

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels.

Previsione

The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels through 23 Apr as HSS activity persists, followed by unsettled to active conditions 24-25 Apr.