Перегляд архіву середа, 6 травня 1998
Звіт про сонячну активність
Будь-який згаданий у цьому звіті сонячний спалах має масштабний коефіцієнт, застосований Центром прогнозування космічної погоди (SWPC). Через масштабний коефіцієнт SWPC, сонячні спалахи подаються на 42% меншими, ніж науково обґрунтовані дані. Масштабуючий коефіцієнт було вилучено з наших архівних даних про сонячні спалахи, щоб відобразити справжні фізичні одиниці.
Звіт про сонячно-геофізичну активність 1998 May 06 2200 UTC
Підтотовлено NOAA © SWPC і опрацьовано SpaceWeatherLive.comСпільний звіт USAF/NOAA про сонячну та геофізичну активність
Випуск SDF номер 126, за 2200Z 06 MAY 1998
IA. Аналіз активних сонячних областей і активності з 05 - 2100Z по 06 - 2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8210 (S15W75) PRODUCED
AN X2/1N FLARE AT 0809Z WHICH HAD VERY STRONG ASSOCIATED RADIO
BURSTS AND A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. THE X2 WAS JUST PRECEDED BY AN M2
FROM THE SAME REGION AT 0725Z. REGION 8210 ALSO PRODUCED AN M2/2N
FLARE AT 05/2346Z WHICH HAD ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV SWEEPS.
LASCO OBSERVERS REPORTED THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS DURING THE
TIME PERIOD: THE FIRST WAS A PARTIAL HALO AT 0002Z AND COULD BE
REASONABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE M2/2N. THE SECOND WAS AT 0228Z FROM
THE NORTH EAST AND APPEARS TO BE AN EVENT BEHIND THE LIMB. THE
THIRD, SEEN AT 0829Z WAS A LARGE AND RELATIVELY FAST EVENT THAT APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X2 FLARE. REGION 8214 (N28W34) HAS NOT
BEEN IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF FLARE PRODUCTION, BUT IT CONTINUES TO
GROW IN COMPLEXITY AND CONTINUES TO DISPLAY VERY HOT PLAGE. SOME
OPPOSITE POLARITY FLUX IS EMERGING JUST WEST OF THE LEADER SPOT, AND
THIS PART OF THE GROUP APPEARS TO BE THE 'HOT SPOT' IN THE REGION.
REGION 8210 (S15W75) IS APPROACHING WEST LIMB, MAKING ANALYSIS MORE
DIFFICULT. THERE MAY BE SOME REFORMING OF THE DELTA CONFIGURATION IN
THE LEADER SPOT. A 10 DEGREE FILAMENT NEAR N20W46
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 05/1130Z AND 06/0657Z.NEW REGION 8218 (S23E74)
WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AND IS A SIMPLE AXX SPOT GROUP.
IB. Прогноз Сонячної Активності
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR CHANCE FOR MORE MAJOR FLARES,
PARTICULARLY FROM REGION 8210. REGION 8214 ALSO HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
PRODUCING M-CLASS EVENTS AND SOME POSSIBILITY FOR MAJOR FLARES OR
PROTON EVENTS.
IIA. Огляд Геофізичної Активності з 05 - 2100Z до 06 - 2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A GREATER THAN 10
MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 0835Z AND QUICKLY REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 210
PFU AT 0945Z. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV PROTONS WERE ALSO ENHANCED
AND REACHED EVENT LEVEL (GREATER THAN 1 PFU) AT 0830Z. THE GREATER
THAN 100 MEV PROTONS REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 2.9 PFU AT 0840 AND
DROPPED BELOW THRESHOLD AT 1335Z. THIS PROTON EVENT SHOWED SPECTRAL
CHARACTERISTICS THAT ARE TYPICAL OF WELL-CONNECTED EVENTS. THE FLUX
LEVELS WERE STEADILY DECLINING AT FORECAST ISSUE TIME.
IIB. Прогноз Геофізичної Активності
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
MOSTLY UNSETTLED UNTIL THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF EFFECTS FROM THE
LEADING EDGE OF TODAY'S CME EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH REGION 8210. THE
LATER CME WAS SUFFICIENTLY FAST THAT IT WILL VERY LIKELY OVERTAKE THE
EARLIER CME. ARRIVAL OF THE SHOCK IS EXPECTED VERY LATE ON THE 7TH
OR EARLY ON THE 8TH, AND A PERIOD OF STRONG ACTIVITY IS LIKELY
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. MID-LATITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO
MAJOR STORM LEVELS AND HIGH LATITUDES COULD HAVE PERIODS OF
SEVERE STORM LEVELS. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST AT ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH 09/1200Z, AFTER WHICH ACTIVITY SHOULD
CALM DOWN TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE PROTON EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO END WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
III. Ймовірність події від 07 - MAY до 09 - MAY
Клас M | 75% | 75% | 65% |
Клас X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Протон | 20% | 20% | 15% |
PCAF | YELLOW
|
IV. Радіовипромінювання λ = 10,7см
Спостережуваний 06 MAY 130
Прогнозований 07 MAY-09 MAY 130/125/125
Середнє значення за останні 90 днів 06 MAY 106
V. Геомагнітні А індекси
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 MAY 023/036
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 MAY 007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 MAY-09 MAY 010/020-045/050-020/025
VI. Ймовірність геомагнітної активності з 07 - MAY до 09 - MAY
A. Середні Широти |
Невеликі збурення | 20% | 10% | 20% |
Слабка геомагнітна буря | 20% | 25% | 20% |
Великий шторм | 15% | 45% | 15% |
B. Високі Широти |
Невеликі збурення | 20% | 10% | 20% |
Слабка геомагнітна буря | 20% | 20% | 30% |
Великий шторм | 15% | 50% | 35% |
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