Випущено: 2013 Apr 13 1248 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)
Warning condition
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
13 Apr 2013 | 140 | 039 |
14 Apr 2013 | 142 | 045 |
15 Apr 2013 | 143 | 008 |
Catania sunspot groups 40 and 43 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1719 respectively) show the signs of decay, although these two active regions (as well as Catania sunspot group 45, NOAA AR 1721) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. M3.3 flare was detected on April 12 peaking at 20:38 UT in the Catania sunspot group 40 (NOAA AR 1718). It was not associated with a CME. The delta sunspot in the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719) does not exist anymore, so an X-flare (and an SEP event) is not very likely (although an Earth-directed CME remains possible). We expect further flaring activity on the M-level, with a non-negligible chance for an isolated X-class flare. The proton flux at energies above 10 MeV is currently below the SEP event threshold, although it still exceeds significantly the background level. In such a situation, a relatively small increase of the proton flux at the expected shock arrival may lead to crossing the SEP event threshold again. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 400 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 4 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions until the arrival (expected later today) of the interplanetary disturbance produced by the halo CME of April 11. The occurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be probable.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 13 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 125 |
10cm solar flux | 138 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 010 |
AK Wingst | 005 |
Estimated Ap | 004 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 081 - Based on 20 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Radio burst types | Catania/NOAA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12 | 1952 | 2038 | 2046 | N21W42 | M3.3 | 40/1718 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
Весь час у UTC
Багато людей відвідують сайт SpaceWeatherLive, щоб слідкувати за сонячною та авроральною активністю, але зі збільшенням трафіку хостинг також стає дорожчим. Будь-ласка, подумайте про пожертву, якщо вам подобається SpaceWeatherLive, щоб ми могли і надалі підтримувати цей сайт і платити за хостинг!
Останній X-спалах | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
Останній M-спалах | 2025/04/01 | M2.5 |
Останній геомагнітний шторм | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
Дні без сонячних плям | |
---|---|
Останній день без сонячних спалахів | 2022/06/08 |
Середня кількість сонячних плям протягом місяця | |
---|---|
лютого 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
квітня 2025 | 147 -7.6 |
Останні 30 днів | 128.8 -21.8 |