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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2013 May 18 1303 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Сонячні протони

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
18 May 2013	136	014
19 May 2013	135	025
20 May 2013	134	010

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low, NOAA AR 1748 produced a C6.0 flare with peak at 03:45 UT. This remains the most active region, although it is decreasing in complexity, and may lose its delta configuration soon. M-class flares can be expected, and X-class flares remain possible. Proton levels are decreasing, but are still slightly over the threshold for 10 MeV. A shock arrived to the Earth at 00:30 UT, it corresponds to the CME from May 15. It arrived later than expected, which can happen for glancing blow events. A short sheath was seen right after the shock. A solar wind speed of 450 km/s and Bz up to -15 nT caused Kp = 5, between 00:00 UT and 06:00UT, while the local Dourbes K value went up to 4. The CME from May 17 is expected to arrive around noon on May 19 and cause up to major geomagnetic storms.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 088, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 17 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	200
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	122 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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