Випущено: 2013 Oct 23 1329 UTC
Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
23 Oct 2013 | 146 | 008 |
24 Oct 2013 | 146 | 013 |
25 Oct 2013 | 141 | 013 |
There were two M flares and seven C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was an M4.2 flare released by beta-gamma-delta region NOAA AR 11875 with peak time at 21:20 UT on October 22, and caused a Type II radio burst with estimated shock speed of 1955 km/s. All flares except a low C flare (from NOAA AR 11877) were produced by AR 11875. More M flares are likely from AR 11875 within the next 48 hours, with a slight chance for an X flare. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed further increased from about 300 km/s to a maximum of about 400 km/s around 19h UT on October 22. It has since fluctuated between 340 and 400 km/s. In the same period, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has varied between 4 and 9 nT, with current values around 5 nT. These variations are consistent with the influence of a weak coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed is expected to return to nominal values on October 24. LASCO C2 observed a CME associated with a filament eruption at 4:36 UT on October 22, which has a slight chance of producing a glancing blow in the second half of October 24. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for October 23 and the first half of October 24. Active conditions are possible in the second half of October 24 and on October 25, due to a possible glancing blow from the CME from October 22.
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 098, based on 12 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 119 |
10cm solar flux | 146 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 012 |
AK Wingst | 005 |
Estimated Ap | 005 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 087 - Based on 23 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
22 | 1449 | 1520 | 1528 | N07E07 | M1.0 | SF | 17/1875 | ||
22 | 2115 | 2120 | 2122 | N04W01 | M4.2 | 1B | 220 | 17/1875 | III/3V/2II/2 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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