Випущено: 2013 Oct 25 1255 UTC
Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)
Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)
10cm flux | Ap | |
---|---|---|
25 Oct 2013 | 166 | 005 |
26 Oct 2013 | 166 | 011 |
27 Oct 2013 | 161 | 016 |
New beta region NOAA AR 11882 near the East limb produced one X flare, two M flares, and one C flare during the past 24 hours. During the same period, eight C flares were released by NOAA AR 11875 (beta-gamma-delta) and 11877 (beta-gamma). The X1.7 flare peaked at 08:01 UT on October 25, and caused a Type II radio burst with estimated shock speed of 1240 km/s as observed by the San Vito solar observatory. SDO/AIA observed a filament eruption in the NE around 2:59 UT on October 25. In the next 48 hours, X flares are possible, especially from NOAA AR 11882. There is a substantial risk of halo CMEs and the warning condition for proton storms remains valid. In the past 24 hours, solar wind has varied between about 300 and 350 km/s. In the same period, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has decreased from about 7 to 2 nT. A weak glancing blow from the CME from October 22 (4:36 UT) seems to have happened around 4h UT on October 25, without any geomagnetic effects. Strong CMEs were registered by LASCO C2 on October 24 (17:24 UT) and October 25 (3:24 UT, related to the M2.9 flare; 4:48 UT, related to the filament eruption; 8:24 UT, related to the X1.7 flare). Preliminary analysis suggests that these CMEs will not be geo-effective. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 0 and 1) during the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for October 25 and the first half of October 26. Active conditions (K Dourbes = 4) with isolated minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5) are possible in the second half of October 26 and on October 27, due to the expected arrival of the CME from October 22 (observed by LASCO C2 at 21:20 UT).
Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 097, based on 11 stations.
Wolf number Catania | 157 |
10cm solar flux | 161 |
AK Chambon La Forêt | 005 |
AK Wingst | 002 |
Estimated Ap | 002 |
Estimated international sunspot number | 105 - Based on 19 stations |
Day | Begin | Max | Кінець | Loc | Strength | OP | 10cm | Catania/NOAA | Radio burst types |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25 | 0248 | 0302 | 0312 | ---- | M2.9 | 23/1882 | II/1V/1I/2 | ||
25 | 0753 | 0801 | 0809 | ---- | X1.7 | 610 | 23/1882 | II/2I/2 | |
25 | 0943 | 1012 | 1025 | ---- | M1.0 | F | 23/1882 | II/1 |
Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive
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