Перегляд архіву вівторок, 17 грудня 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Випущено: 2013 Dec 17 1229 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Сонячні спалахи

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Сонячні протони

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Dec 2013	152	006
18 Dec 2013	150	005
19 Dec 2013	150	011

Bulletin

The strongest solar flare was a C3.1 long-duration flare peaking on December 16 at 21h33 UTC originating from new active region NOAA AR 1927, located at the west limb. The flare was associated with a CME, observed in LASCO/C2 (first measurement on December 16 at 21h27 UTC) and STEREO A coronagraphic data (at 21h39 UTC). The CME is travelling to the west with an estimated speed of 650 km/s (estimated via Stereo CAT), with possible arrival of a glancing blow late December 19 (UTC time). The probability for C-flares is around 70%, M-flares around 30%, with NOAA ARs 1917 and 1927 as main source candidates. The chances for an X-flare are low. The proton flux measured by GOES, is below threshold levels. We are currently inside a slow solar wind stream with a solar wind speed of 400 km/s, as observed by ACE. The interplanetary magnetic field currently is weak with a maximum magnitude of 5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K<3) to unsettled (K=3) and are expected to remain so for the next 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 088, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Dec 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	080 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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